Now that sports gambling is totally legal in the USA, you may want to enjoy some extra motivation in rooting for your favorite player. The information below I pay for, and has been very accurate. My own personal picks for this years Open do not include Dustin Johnson or John Rahm.
The best bets are not the odds to win (that’s very tough to pick the winner unless it was Tiger in his prime) but easier to pick the matches. Below you’ll see he likes Colin Morikawa vs. Bryson. I totally agree with this pick as Bryson will be bombing the ball in the rough which you CANNOT do at Winged Foot.
I played in the USGA Four Ball at Winged Foot a few years ago, and its very tough with the narrow fairways and the very tricky greens. I think his pick to win of Web Simpson is a good one, although Web is a very boring player (to me he is because he is not a bomber and just plods along, which is why he’s already won a US Open at Olympic Club in 2012)
Winged Foot is very similar to the Olympic Club with relatively small greens to fire at where shots must be coming from the fairway, not the rough. r
Read below and let me know what you think?
Golf handicapper Rick Gehman, who nailed Webb Simpson winning the RBC Heritage at 30-1, gives his best bets for this week’s major championship at Winged Foot.ByRick Gehman@RickRunGoodSep 15, 7:44AM PDT . 6 min read
With his data-driven approach to betting golf, Rick Gehman routinely crushes sportsbooks. Over the last 18 tournaments, Gehman’s bets are up almost $2,300 for $100 players.
At the RBC Heritage in June, Gehman told SportsLine readers to bet Webb Simpson at 30-1, saying he “certainly appreciates the books dropping Simpson all the way down to 30-1” following a bad performance the week before and noting Harbour Town was the perfect course for Simpson’s game. The result? Simpson fired a 22-under to win the RBC Heritage!
At the Travelers Championship, Gehman played Doc Redman to make the top 20, a +750 longshot, and Redman cashed easily with an 11th-place finish. At the Rocket Mortgage Classic last month, Gehman put Bryson DeChambeau atop his rankings. DeChambeau fired a final-round 65 to win by three strokes.
And at the Tour Championship, Gehman cashed his 12-1 bet on Xander Schauffele winning (without strokes) in the FedEx Cup playoff finale.
Now Gehman, whose models have produced 11 outright winners in the past year, has analyzed the latest U.S. Open odds from William Hill and revealed his picks to win, top prop bets and head-to-head picks. We can tell you Gehman loves Collin Morikawa (-118) to win his matchup over Bryson DeChambeau (-106). Gehman said DeChambeau’s grip-it and rip-it game is unlikely to succeed at Winged Foot, and Morikawa “has a game that translates everywhere.”
Gehman also has isolated three players to win, including a 40-1 play who has been trending toward victory the past several weeks! This player thrives on tough courses and has the grinding mentality a U.S. Open requires. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who it is, along with Gehman’s detailed bets and picks, before you bet the Tour Championship!
Here is Gehman’s writeup (posted Tuesday):
Last Event’s Recap
Mackenzie Hughes was a big mover at the Tour Championship, and while he missed out on cashing our top-10 ticket, his matchup victory over Cameron Champ added to our winning week. The big chunk of our success came from Xander Schauffele winning, without strokes, at +1200. It was good for +3.79 units on the week and +15.92 units on the season, and we’re at +22.92 over the past 18 tournaments..
The U.S. Open won’t be for the faint of heart. All reports and expectations are that Winged Foot will play incredibly difficult, with challenging greens and rough that will be extremely penal if you miss the fairway. Not only will it take a complete game to contend, you’ll also need to be mentally tough to deal with four days worth of challenges.
Winner – Webb Simpson (+2500) – 0.55 units
Once they walk off the tee box, Webb Simpson becomes the best player in the world. He gains 1.76 strokes per round in the approach, around-the-green and putting categories. It’s the most of any golfer in the field. And while Simpson’s lone detriment is that he is not a long hitter, being able to find the fairway will be much more important than bombing it over 300 yards at Winged Foot. Simpson hits 67.3 percent of his fairways, which ranked him 18th on Tour last season. Already with one U.S. Open Championship on his resume, Simpson will look to add a second this week.
Winner – Collin Morikawa (+1600) – 0.60 units
The recipe for success at Winged Foot is very clear. Hit the fairway and turn this into a second-shot course. Morikawa can certainly find the short grass off the tee, and when you put an iron or wedge in his hand, he’s one of the best players on the planet. He’s answered every question we’ve asked of his game and continues to improve on a weekly basis.
Winner – Tyrrell Hatton (+4000) – 0.40 units
Hatton definitely has the “grind” mentality needed to find success at a U.S. Open venue. He was the winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. That was actually the most difficult course played on Tour last season, and Hatton was the one raising the trophy on Sunday. He’s trending in the right direction, with three consecutive top-25 finishes, culminating with a fifth-place finish at the Tour Championship.
Top 10- Matthew Fitzpatrick (+500) – 0.45 units
It’s not pretty, but Fitzpatrick finds a way to get it done. The more difficult the course, the better. Fitzpatrick played well at Bay Hill, Muirfield Village and Olympia Fields this past season. Those were three of the most difficult courses played, and Fitzpatrick finished T-9, T-6 and T-6, respectively. His back-to-back T-12 finishes at the U.S. Open prove that no stage, course or field is too big for Fitzpatrick.
Top 10- Brendon Todd (+600) – 0.50 units
At first glance, you’d cross Todd off your list of considerations for a major championship, but U.S. Open venues are different. There’s a premium placed on hitting the fairway, which Todd accomplishes 71.36 percent of the time (fourth-best on Tour). There’s also a premium placed on great putting, since these greens are so difficult. Todd ranked 20th in strokes gained putting last season. When you dig deeper, you realize that Todd’s unique game does indeed create a path to success.
Tournament Matchup – Collin Morikawa (-118) over Bryson DeChambeau (-106) – 1 unit
DeChambeau is committed to a strategy that emphasizes distance over accuracy. That works well the vast majority of the time on Tour, but it is untested at a U.S. Open venue like Winged Foot. Morikawa, on the other hand, has a game that translates everywhere. Morikawa’s floor is as high as any golfer on Tour, which usually comes in handy when wagering matchups.